A professor once joked that the best way to turn a Democrat into a Republican was to let him graduate, get a job, and see how much he has to pay in taxes. Indeed, when I was in college, most of my classmates had Democratic leanings. I preferred to remain independent. But as time went on I noticed I had more in common with Republicans, and that is the way I usually voted.
Many years later I took a job in Massachusetts. Almost everyone in the state was a registered Democrat, so I decided to register as a Republican. I did so just in time to help elect William Weld, a Republican, governor. I have been a registered Republican ever since.
This is why it pains me to see the Republican party struggling so much in recent months. The Bush administration, in particular, is falling apart. A number of high-ranking officials have resigned. Karl Rove and Alberto Gonzales are only the most recent.
It is becoming more and more difficult for me to believe that the Republicans will be able to hold on to the White House in 2008. There does not appear to be a single Republican candidate who can energize the core of the party and at the same time attract a critical mass of Democrats.
The Democratic candidates have many flaws, yet their constituents appear quite satisfied with them. In my opinion, unless the Democrats completely blow it, this election belongs to them, which of course makes me all the more bearish on stocks. I believe a Democrat in the While House, along with a Democratic Congress, spells higher taxes. I expect stocks to go lower as more and more investors reach the same conclusion.
