By Vahan Janjigian - I had an interesting lunch today with Kurt Schacht of the CFA Institute and Ravenel Curry of Eagle Capital Management. In February, the three of us traveled to Abu Dhabi and Dubai to lecture to the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Mubadala, and the CFA Institute's local chapter in Dubai. Today's lunch was an opportunity to catch up on that trip and learn about some new initiatives. Kurt is headed back to the U.A.E. in two weeks. This time he is taking Tom Keene of Bloomberg fame and Jason Trennert of Strategas Research Partners.
During lunch, we discussed the markets and economy. Both Ravenel and I remain skeptical of the recent rally. In my view, there is a good chance we will see a double-dip recession with the second phase coming in the first or second quarter of 2010. Government stimulus appears to have brought us out of the first recession, but I doubt the gains will last. I talk a little about this in my column in an upcoming issue of Forbes magazine. In the meantime, you can read my views on the market and the views of several others as recently published in Hold Cash, Sell Stocks.